The Ferry and Numbers

We like boating around Tampa Bay area as much as anyone. It's a great way to get another perspective on the area, and enjoy even more what our community has to offer.

The Tribune editorial yesterday was imploring Mayor Bob Buckhorn to join forces with St. Petersburg to bring in a ferry service between the two cities so even more people can enjoy the bay.

The cost to launch a pilot ferry service connecting downtown Tampa with downtown St. Petersburg is relatively modest when the entirety of the city of Tampa’s budget is considered.

St. Petersburg has committed $350,000 toward the project, and Tampa could be expected to contribute a similar amount to get the project off the ground and operating on Tampa Bay during the winter months next year.

Yet Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn seems reluctant to embrace the project. He says he doesn’t have enough information to know whether the private company that is eventually chosen to run the ferry service would bear the risks rather than the taxpayers.

Buckhorn is practicing some rare fiscal conservatism for him.

“What I’m not going to do is subsidize a private company and put all the risk on the taxpayers and have the private venture have none of the risk and get all the profit,” Buckhorn said. “That doesn’t fly with me. I’m not anticipating putting a lot of city dollars into this.”

He hasn't taken this stand since he voted against the Tampa Street Car when he was on the Tampa City Council.

Will we get a ferry?

Regardless, the Tribune is undeterred.

The downtown ferry would take about $1 million to run a single boat for the winter, or $1.5 million to run two boats. Backers of the project want to keep the price of a round-trip fare in the neighborhood of $10, making it affordable.

Only half of the total expense to get the service launched and running might be recouped. But the public cost is justified. A pilot project would provide an understanding of how a ferry between the downtowns might work and whether demand is great enough to sustain a regular service beyond the pilot project.

The investment could pay dividends down the road if the ferry proves to be a successful way to get cars off the road and connect the two downtowns.

They admit the revenues will cover "only half of the total expense", but hope springs eternal.

What about "if the ferry proves to be a successful way to get cars off the road?"

Can the ferry really take cars off the road? This looks like another great opportunity to apply some 4th Grade Math.

St. Petersburg has issued a Request For Quotation for a ferry provider. The main requirements are that it must run at 25 knots (28.75 mph), and accommodate at least 100 passengers.

The distance across the bay from the the proposed Tampa landing at the Convention Center to downtown St. Petersburg is about 20.5 miles. Yes, it really is that far.

The Tribune states the trip will take about 50 minutes. It will arguably be longer, as there is a 2 mile no wake zone in Seddon Channel which may take 15 minutes alone. But lets' assume with boarding, the ferry departs every hour on the hour, for a 12 hour service day, or 12 one way trips a day.

Let's assume the ferry is a big success, and every trip is booked full with 100 passengers. That's 1200 ferry riders a day. However, most of those will likely be making the round trip, so that's 600 people a day total.

If we estimate automobile volume, at 1.5 passengers per car, that is 800 round trips, or 400 cars per day. As in "cars off the road" due to the Tampa - St. Pete ferry.

If  another ferry is added for $500,000 as may be considered, then the capacity can be doubled from the above numbers.

Now compare that to the major traffic route between Tampa and St. Petersburg on I-275. According to FDOT, the busiest segment on I-275 around Westshore is nearly 198,500 vehicles per day (two - way).

With the ferry, then, we reduce the traffic on the Westshore segment of I-275 to... drum roll, please.... 197,700 vehicles per day (two - way).

Evidently, they don't teach math in journalism school.

We could do the math comparing the the ferry to driving between the two cities, but you get the point. Math is cold, hard facts.

Now, there is a value for tourists to make a day on the ferry visiting the cities. Nothing wrong with that. Adding a ferry to Tampa Bay seems like an attraction that many tourists and local can enjoy.

But it won't make a dent in traffic reduction if we had 10 loaded ferries running between Tampa and St. Petersburg.

Whether the Tampa - St. Petersburg ferry should be backed by the taxpayers is something for another day.

Sunday March 1, 2015 The new St. Pete Pier Please Let Your Opinion be known

Right now you have the opportunity to express your opinion on the new St. Pete Pier. It is very important to get a large cross section of the community to present their opinion.

Choose up to three design concepts, the results will be will used by the Pier Selection Committee for final ranking and selection to Mayor and City Council on March 20. You can rank up to three selections or you can simply pick the one you like.

You can find the online survey here:

http://www.newstpetepier.com

The design presentations can be found at this web address: http://www.newstpetepier.com/designs.php.

The City has a comparison of design elements at http://www.newstpetepier.com/designs.php#hr-chart that will provide a quick comparison of the proposals.

Up to now, the Pier has been more divisive than celebratory.

Please take a few minutes click on the website above and let the City Administration and the Selection Committee know what you think.

If you know someone who does not have access to the internet that would like to participate, you can give them a hand or help them get to a City Library where any of the staff will be happy to help them get into the website.

Your input is really important.

E-mail Doc at: dr.webb@verizon.net. Or send me a Facebook (Gene Webb) Friend request. Twitter@DOCONTHEBAY. Please comment below, and be sure to share on Facebook and Twitter. See Doc's Photo Gallery at Bay Post Photos

Sunday December 21, 2014 The Really big Deal on the New St. Pete Pier

The designs are in and you can see them at http://www.stpete.org/theNewPier/ . They are all

interesting, some more than others.

I am going to let the public way in on their choice on which design they like. I have a preference, but I’ll keep it to myself.

Instead, I am going to focus on the process, because I think that is where the problems will arise.

From the administration’s perspective, I can honestly say I have never seen the administrative team more focused on finding out what the public wants and following through on their desires. At all levels there seems to be a genuine desire to get it right this time.

The public spoke loud and clear in the LENS referendum and the message has really sunk in. The staff is committed to follow the public input process.

In the public survey portion of the process, social media will play a big role as the Kriseman administration asks the public to way in with their choice. It’s up to you to go on line and be part of the process and the final decision. I’ll have a lot more to say on the survey portion later.

If you look at the designs, they all include significant impact on the uplands. If this design concept moves toward Beach Drive and begins to look like it may provide some competition for Beach Drive look for some powerful opposition to arise.

As long as the Beach Drive Barons don’t see the Pier as major competition everything should go pretty easy.

It will be interesting to see where the St. Pete Chamber lands. Heavily populated with Beach Drive interests, the Chamber may be forced into walking a narrow line if there is opposition to the public’s choice for the new Pier.

The good news so far is: the Kriseman administration has done a good job in keeping the Chamber and Beach Drive interests in perspective.

At this point I think the process is most vulnerable right after the survey is completed. That’s why it will be extremely important for a large number of people to weigh in with their choice.

The final selection committee is the most critical step in the process. That’s where the last Pier choice went astray, and it could happen again. If the power players are going to try and exert influence this is their opportunity.

For now Kriseman, Connors and the Pier Team seem to have it all under control.

E-mail Doc at: dr.webb@verizon.net. Or send me a Facebook (Gene Webb) Friend request. Twitter@DOCONTHEBAY. Please comment below, and be sure to share on Facebook and Twitter. See Doc's Photo Gallery at Bay Post Photos.