HART Hits a Wall

It was just a year or so ago we could not read the Tampa Bay Times or the now defunct Tampa Tribune about HART or PSTA setting new ridership records. Those days have been over for quite a while.

Buried deep in the HART Board Packet for the June 5, 2017 meeting (PDF) is the April 2017 ridership summary on page 6-4.

April 2017 bus ridership declined 10.7% compared to April 2016 and all mode ridership is off 7.3% for the first seven months of FY 2017.

April 2017 streetcar ridership is down 10.6% compared to April 2016. Year-to-date streetcar ridership is up 4.9% compared to the same time period of FY 2016.

HART April 2017 Ridership

Perhaps a few more riders are enjoying the trolley as the revitalization of downtown Tampa slowly progresses. Or perhaps because parking has been "gobbled up".

Outside of New York, transit ridership is largely down nationwide the last couple of years. DC Metro in particular has taken some big hits as they've cut service in an attempt to catch up on a multi-billion dollar backlog of much needed maintenance. But many others that have invested billions in developing mass transit, particularly light rail and fixed guideways, are down in ridership as well.

In a recent rare article lamenting decreased local transit ridership, it looks like HART is getting ready for a reboot.

“If you see fewer people using your services across the board, at some point, you have to ask yourself, ‘what’s going on with your business model? And how can we reboot?'” asks Katherine Eagan, the CEO for HART.

The economy reportedly is heating up, gas prices are down, millennials are buying cars, and rideshare services are increasingly popular (particularly since the PTC is being disbanded...yay!). Choice transit riders have exercised their choice, and their choice is less transit, and more driving. USF CUTR's Steve Polzin:

A few months ago, the Federal Highway Administration released 2016 vehicle miles of travel data, indicating robust travel demand growth in 2016, up 2.8%. The increase pushed total vehicle miles of travel (VMT) to a new record and boosted travel per capita to levels not seen since mid-2008. That disappointment was compounded by the recent release of 2016 transit ridership data, indicating a decline of 2.3% in 2016, which compounds last year's 1.3% decline. The disheartening news continued with the recent release of Census data indicating growth trends that had many highly urbanized counties loosing population while growth flourished in predominately suburban style counties. The top ten shrinking counties had a transit commute mode share over twice as high as the top ten growing counties. Piling on, other data indicates that millennials are morphing toward more traditional characteristics as "Millennials are starting to find jobs and relocating to the suburbs and smaller cities," according to a recent Bloomberg article. "Everything we thought about millennials not buying cars was wrong," says the title of a Business Insider news story.

As the country goes, Hillsborough County and HART head in the same direction.

HART of course will try to reboot, as stated above. We wish them the best of luck.

“What we’re doing with service is going to be pretty transformational,” says Marco Sandusky, director of government and community relations with HART. “We’re shifting the way our network is set up to try to build up a higher frequency core grid-based network, and we realize that’s going to have an impact on people who use our service today.”

The good news is that HART is solely a rubber-wheel bus oriented transit agency. It can make these changes as their transit market changes. Changes in their ridership, less demand, more demand, new destinations, can all be relatively easily changed without major capital investment. Especially compared to light rail and fixed guideways.

Regardless, as we take on the next phase of transportation issues in the region, with another reboot on the newly renamed Tampa Bay Next, it is increasingly important to understand the current state and trends of transit solutions, particularly here in Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay Next new graphic logo

HART serves about 1.5% of the daily workforce (American Community Survey), or about 11,000 riders per day. Over 600,000 commuters get to work by automobile. Pretty simple math.

ACS 2015 Commuting Data, Hillsborough County
(click to enlarge)

At least FDOT acknowledges that math on the Tampa Bay Next site, as FDOT is forecasting nearly 300,000 vehicles per day on Tampa interstates by 2040, which will require further expansion of the Tampa Bay interstates. In their rather optimistic transit forecast, FDOT believes transit may take up to 10% of the cars of the road by 2040, or just under 30,000. That would require a triple of transit ridership by 2040, which few if any regions in the USA have done despite many investing billions of dollars into transit. Still, with the interstates approaching 270,000 daily vehicles, again with FDOTs optimistic transit estimates, up from 180,000 today, investment in the Tampa Bay interstates is critical to future mobility and economic development across Tampa Bay.

Transit ridership is down locally and nationally. HART's contribution to commuters and therefore congestion relief is minor and will likely continue to stay that way. Choice riders have more money in their pocket and more choices. Not to mention the impact of future technologies on the horizon such as autonomous vehicles. More people are moving into Tampa Bay faster than transit can build out. They are moving into areas with sparse if any transit service - South Hillsborough and South Pasco - which will put further pressure on the already overload interstates.

We have no realistic choice.

Fix our roads - and our interstates - first!

Aggressive Timeline: Merge HART PSTA Into Tampa Bay Transit Authority

We recently posted here there is an orchestrated backdoor effort to merge HART and PSTA.

This is the latest.

After some HART Board members had issues with the Inter-local Agreement HART drafted, an MOU (Memorandum of Understanding) was subsequently drafted.

PSTA held a Legislative committee meeting on January 4, 2017 where the MOU was discussed. 

A video of the meeting can be found here. At about 3:00 PSTA CEO Brad Miller starts the discussion of the MOU with admitting HART and PSTA already work closely together. He states the MOU is binding just like an Inter-local agreement but this MOU is more definitive about merging departments and looking at all functions to "combine".

Miller said Pinellas County Commissioner Janet Long, who is pushing the regionalism agenda, spoke with HART's CEO Katherine Eagan to create a "timeline that was more important than a MOU". Miller indicated that the full PSTA Board would be "comfortable" voting for this MOU at their January 25 Board meeting. 

PSTA also held an Executive committee meeting on January 6, 2017 and video of that meeting can be found here.

At about 2:00 in the video Miller begins speaking about the MOU stating the intent of it was to present it to the state legislature. He outlined a timeline of PSTA approving it 1/25, HART approving it 2/6 and then he and Eagan and their lobbyist(s) going to Tallahassee on 2/7 to jointly present it. 

Such an aggressive schedule indicates the orchestration for this has been going on for a long time. 

Miller states this agreement fits into the larger context of a governance study they are asking the state legislature to pay for on how to implement Commissioner Long's proposed Regional Council of Governments Cronies. Miller also states "it's not going to take an act of the legislature" to do this - merging without going through a legal merger.

At 6:55 in the video, the question of how funding works with this "joint" agency is asked. Through Long's proposed regional entity? Long responded that the state legislators did not like the name "Regional Council of Governments" and preferred Tampa Bay Transit Authority, confirming this is really about merging and regionalizing decision making.

At about 8:30 in the video, Long states a merged entity speaking with "one regional voice" will enable the merged entity to get more federal funding. At 10:59 Long says that because the two entities were established differently - PSTA by a local bill and HART by general law, it is difficult to legally "undo"(because it would take a referendum).

PSTA then held a Board workshop on January 13, 2017 off site so there is no video recording of the meeting.  The agenda packet found here included Long's Regional Vision Proposal and Proposed Regional Planning Governance Study.

Agenda for January 13, 2017 PSTA Workshop

The proposed MOU is also in the agenda packet. 

Long's Regional vision presentation reflects where "they" are going - REGIONAL SALES TAX FUNDING. 

Long's Regional Vision includes
Regional Sales Tax funding

UPDATE:  Long's Regional Vision of REGIONAL SALES TAX FUNDING IS IN ADDITION TO THE EXISTING LOCAL JURISDICTIONAL PROPERTY TAX FUNDING - NOT A TAX SWAP.

Included with Long's presentation is an editorial by the Tampa Bay Times last month supporting Long's proposal, the HART - PSTA merger and all the scheming done behind the scenes orchestrating it all.

The quiet discussions are particularly reassuring in the wake of three failed transit initiatives in the bay area in recent years. 

This approach has the opportunity to improve bus service, ease road congestion, lay a path for regional rail, save tax money and make for smarter growth, easing the costly impacts of sprawl. To voters looking for a better strategy before agreeing to tax themselves more for transit, these are positive developments.

There are more particulars to deal with, and Tampa Bay is still a long way from a robust regional transportation authority and one common plan for mass transit that includes light rail.

The Times have been wrong and on the losing side of every proposed transportation sales tax hike in Tampa Bay. Including an oped of support from those who consistently lose seems odd but it does reflect how our local rail cartel operates in their own echo chamber.

What's missing from their "collective" narrative?  Ridership at both HART and PSTA has been declining. Innovation and technology from the private sector are driving the future of transportation which will be a disruptive factor to transit, especially on costly fixed guideways. 

In addition, with a new Trump Administration there will be change that very well could change the criteria and decision making for what and how federal funds are awarded. 

The net of all this scheming and aggressive "timeline" is to quickly ram through HART and PSTA Boards the approval of this MOU before the public can appropriately weigh in or even fully understand what is actually occurring (get it passed before the public knows what's in it). 

Then HART, PSTA and their lobbyists can immediately take the MOU to Tallahassee and jointly present it. The MOU is being used to get Senator Latvala's (Senate Appropriations Committee Chair) blessing to fund yet another study for how to implement Long's Regional vision and somehow the merging of the two transit agencies.

The fast path of this MOU Miller expects is first approval at the January 25 PSTA Board meeting. It will then be discussed at the HART Board Legislative meeting on Monday, 1/23 at 10am. Then Miller expects the MOU to be on the agenda for approval at the next full HART Board meeting on February 6th.

There is method to their madness because the transit agency merger action is being pushed in  conjunction with the completion of the Tampa Bay Premium Transit Feasibility Study Plan (a post for another day) targeted for late 2018. 

Reminder: pursuing federal capital grants for transit requires a long term committed local funding source. (Watch out Hillsborough and Pinellas in 2020…) 

Watch the video again and cringe. The egregiousness of recommending going around voters is appalling and PSTA was using taxpayer funded consultants and attorneys to recommend such action.

Hillsborough taxpayers should not be put at any risk and we certainly do not want to bailout PSTA. 

HART and PSTA can and should collaborate when it is mutually beneficial but no merger is needed to collaborate.

Can we stop all the "quiet discussions" scheming behind the scenes for new baseball stadiums and how to regionalize power and more time focusing on fixing our neglected roads (that 98% of us and buses use everyday), and our stormwater and sewage systems that impacts us all?