Orwellian? Job-lock or Dependency

Last week Democrats and their media megaphone churned out the term "job-lock". Why? Because the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) reported that Obamacare will kill 2.5 million jobs by 2024.  The Hill reported

The new healthcare law will cost the nation the equivalent of 2.5 million workers in the next decade, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated in a report released Tuesday. 

The nonpartisan agency found the reform law’s negative effects on employment would be “substantially larger” than what it had previously anticipated. 

It said the equivalent of 2.3 million workers would be lost by 2021, compared to its previous estimate of 800,000, and that 2.5 million workers would be lost by 2024. It also projected that labor force compensation would be reduced by 1 percent from 2017 to 2024 — twice its previous estimate.

In addition to killing jobs, the CBO director Douglas Elmendorf admitted Obamacare creates a disincentive to work.

Columnist Charles Krauthammer reports that White House Press Secretary Jay Carney's response will be "emblazoned on the tombstone of Liberalism":

“Opportunity created by affordable, quality health insurance allows families in America to make a decision about how they will work, or if they will work (emphasis mine).”

Avik Roy at Forbes adds this

CBO projects that economic growth will be more sluggish than they had previously projected. 

CBO projects that from 2014 to 2023, the federal government will receive $1.4 trillion less in tax revenue than it had projected last year. As a result, “CBO now estimates that the cumulative deficit for the 2014-2023 period…would be about $1.0 trillion greater (emphasis mine) than it projected in May [2013].”

CBO Long Term Spending Projections

The CBO report is just more proof of the devastation of Obamacare.  Therefore, Obama, the White House and the Democrats went into full panic spin mode immediately.  With their media echo chamber, Obama and the Democracts began telling us Obamacare cures this problem called "job-lock".

Democrat House minority leader Nancy Pelosi smilingly told us that Obamacare "represents Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness"?  Most Americans do not believe our Founding Fathers expected us to pursue our happiness by forcing someone else to pay for it. We guess Pelosi forgot or ignored the fact that she lost her Speaker position in 2010 on the very issue of Obamacare.  But facts don't matter….they just get in the way of the truth.

Progressives always put a name on everything so now it's "job-lock".  What is job-lock?  Wikipedia describes it

The term job lock is used to describe the inability of an employee to freely leave a job because doing so will result in the loss of employee benefits (usuallyhealth or retirement related).

Do Democrats ever think about root-cause? Let's step back in time and understand when and why our healthcare benefits got tied directly to our employment.  According to the Madison Project 

In 1942 during WW11 under FDR, Congress passed the Stabilization Act, which instituted wage controls in the workforce. Like every other deleterious government intervention, the wage controls led to unintended consequences. In order to compete in the labor market, employers began to look for other means of compensation to attract talent and reward productive employees. This gave rise to the tax exemption for employer-provided health insurance officially created by a 1954 IRS ruling. Concurrently, labor unions began engaging in collective bargaining for fringe benefits in addition to wages.

The truth is government created this so called job-lock of tying healthcare benefits to employment.  We don't expect to get our property insurance or our automobile insurance through our employer or through the government.  

Instead of fixing job-lock, Obamacare was built on it as a complicated, costly, bureaucratic attempt to take over 1/6 of our economy. Common sense steps would help divest our healthcare benefits from our employer: fixing the tax issue, enabling the purchase of policies across state lines, tort reform and providing a safety net for those with pre-existing conditions and low income.  

Does Obama and the Democrats actually want to fix this government created job-lock? Then cure our anemic, stagnant economy by getting the government out of the way so our free market economy can start driving job creation. Begin by repealing and replacing Obamacare with market driven reforms, reform our tax code and reign in our spending. Obamacare will never "cure" job-lock but a growing, robust economy will.

Senate majority leader Harry Reid, from Nevada where high unemployment remains, jumps on the job-lock bandwagon and adds that with Obamacare "we're all free agents".  

It allows people to get out of a job they’re locked into, because of — they have healthcare in their job.”

Reid tells us that as free agents people can do what they want.  Did he say that in the same vane as he stated that the US income tax is “voluntary”?  According to Websters Dictionary

Free agent is a person who is able to act freely without being controlled by someone else

Obamacare is a federal one size fits all bad policy of mandates, taxes, and penalties that has already caused higher premiums, higher co-pays and deductibles and limited access.  Obamacare isn't about people doing what they want, it's about the government forcing people to do what it wants. Only an aging, out of touch Senator Reid would call that being a free agent.

Today, employer-sponsored insurance is the leading source of health insurance.  By mid-year when the delay expires, we anticipate employers will start canceling their employees healthcare coverage due to the cost of complying with government dictated insurance.  We've heard rumblings that because of the mid-term election, Obama may again delay this mandate. Obama meant it when he said he'd use his phone and pen to unilaterally advance his political agenda.

Combining George Orwell's  "doublethink" and "newspeak" from his book 1984, published in 1949, came the term "doublespeak". 

language used to deceive usually through concealment or misrepresentation of truth

Lies and deceit were the foundation of Obamacare. The negative consequences of Obamacare are becoming more apparent everyday.  Now the Democrats wants to swap their government created job-lock for more government created dependency. They tell us less work is good. 

Transitioning into an Orwellian society - we'll all be "free" agents forced into Obamacare!  

Misleading Facts in its Entirety

Today the Tribune published a Letter to the Editor titled Misleading Facts submitted by the Eye's founder, Mark Calvert.  We appreciate the Tribune publishing Mark's letter but they shortened it a bit.  Therefore, we are publishing the letter to the editor in it's entirety as submitted and highlighting what was removed by the Tribune.

Regarding the February 2nd, 2014 Editorial “Much riding on Pinellas transit plan”, the Tribune did not validate Greenlight Pinellas statements against the facts. 

The Trib stated "Another 200,000 people are expected to move into the county over the next 25 years, a 20 percent increase". 

This is cherry picking the data. According to the University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research, (http://www.bebr.ufl.edu/bebr-products/series/Florida%20County%20Population%20Projections), which is the original source of this estimate, the 200,000 population increase by 2040 in Pinellas is the "high" growth scenario. The medium scenario has Pinellas stagnant, and the low growth scenario, a similar likelihood as the high growth, Pinellas actually LOSES nearly 200,000 in the same time frame. 

Greenlight Pinellas should be using the "medium" scenario for population forecasts, which is the scenario the researchers state "believe will generally provide the most accurate forecasts of future population change." 

I should note the Tribune routinely uses 600,000 or less when reporting the forecasted growth for Hillsborough by 2040, which is the "medium" scenario in the cited study. 

Greenlight Pinellas is intentionally misleading in their “education” efforts, as the “most accurate” population forecast offers less compelling justification for their case. 

The Tribune is not performing a public service by mindlessly printing Greenlight Pinellas misleading talking points.

--------------------------------------------------

Here are the University of Florida population estimates for Pinellas from their Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research link above:

	2012	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035	2040
PINELLAS	920,381
Low		865,700	839,400	812,800	786,000	759,000	731,800	Loss of 188,581
Medium		921,000	922,400	923,600	924,700	925,600	926,400	Increase of 6,019
High		976,300	1,005,400	1,034,500	1,063,400	1,092,200	1,120,900	Increase of 171,189

As the study states, the medium forecast is probably the most accurate.  Is a stagnant population growth over the next 25 years in Pinellas a warning sign about building a high cost light rail system?

Tampa Bay Partnership Expensive Ride to Nowhere

The Tampa Bay Partnership (TBP) has decided to weigh in on the Greenlight Pinellas project by questioning the effectiveness of the opposition.

Those in opposition to the Greenlight Pinellas plan organized and hosted their campaign kick-off event last week and have gained some traction. Several recent articles have alluded that No Tax for Tracks Pinellas is the second generation of opposition stemming from No Tax for Tracks Hillsborough, which “defeated” the 2010 transit referendum in Hillsborough County but just how effective was that group four years ago?

Post-election polling conducted by Kenney Group in the weeks following the defeat of Hillsborough’s 2010 transit referendum finds that just 6 percent of voters said they were even somewhat convinced by No Tax for Tracks. In fact, 75 percent of those who voted against the referendum did not recall hearing anything from the opposition group. By comparison, 26 percent of voters said they were very or somewhat convinced by the campaign to support the referendum – Moving Hillsborough Forward.

TBP cites a poll where "just 6 percent of voters said they were even somewhat convinced by No Tax for Tracks", yet "26 percent of voters said they were very or somewhat convinced by the campaign to support the referendum – Moving Hillsborough Forward." What are the internals of that poll?  How many lived in the county vs the city?  What was the demographics or party affiliation?  Reporting results of a poll that provides no information of who was polled is basically meaningless.

However, TBP goes on to state "what went wrong for Hillsborough transportation in 2010 shows that a hostile political environment, struggling economy and anti-tax sentiment (isolated from the referendum itself) was really what defeated the Hillsborough initiative".

Well, what ever.  It's not news there's a substantial part of the population, even in Hillsborough County, that are not eager to tax and spend for comprehensive yet unaccountable plans.

Could Tampa Bay Partnership, a supporter of Greenlight Pinellas,  be getting a little skiddish and felt the need to raise some fear, uncertainty and doubt about the Greenlight Pinellas opposition?

Tampa Bay Partnership supports Greenlight Pinellas

Once again, No Tax for Tracks is the David fighting against the Goliath of the Big Business backed Tampa Bay Partnership.  Now add the newly formed million dollar PAC Greenlight Yes, which is headed by Ronnie Duncan, the unelected chairman of the Tampa Bay Area Regional Transportation Authority, and PSTA openly coordinating with Greenlight YES.  Not to mention PSTA has already spent $400,000 on education, and has budgeted another $150,000 for even more education.

Add that up, and Greenlight Pinellas proponents have spent or will spend at least $1,550,000, much of which is taxpayer funded, to "educate" Pinellas voters.

Too bad they are not spending that money to improve transit services in Pinellas.

Recent polls are indicating a downward trend in support for Greenlight Pinellas, especially when the voters are educated about the new tax, 61% opposed the tax hike.

No Tax for Tracks Pinellas kickoff was attended by well over 100 citizens.

Connect Tampa Bay unveiled their plan in Tampa on January 30th with about 30 people attending.

How much money did No Tax for Tracks raise and spend, back by a few concerned citizens?

Just under $25,000.

What percentage of the votes did No Tax for Tracks get?

58%

How much money to the Tampa Bay Partnership backed Moving Hillborough Forward PAC spend, funded by some of the largest businesses in Tampa Bay?

$1,800,000

What percentage of votes did Moving Hillsborough Forward receive?

42%

How much money did MHF waste per vote?

Who was most cost effective?

Tampa Bay Partnership concludes

[I]f No Tax for Tracks Pinellas wants to ride the “success” of their sister group in Hillsborough County they may find that success can be hard to measure.

If Tampa Bay Partnership wants to ride on their success in 2010, it will be a very expensive ride to nowhere.

Who won on the only metric that counted in November 2010, the popular vote?

The citizens supporting No Tax for Tracks won.

Transportation Chaos

The debate about transportation, rail and transit is getting hotter and hotter everyday in the Tampa Bay region. There are transit referendums on the November 2014 ballot in Pinellas and Polk.  There's a steady drum beat from the rail cartel (pro rail politicians, taxpayer funded agencies and special interests) for another rail referendum in Hillsborough. 

In 2010 there were transit referendums on the ballot in Hillsborough and Polk. Hillsborough had a comprehensive referendum that included rail and Polk had a transit only referendum to expand their bus service. Both referendums went down in flaming defeats, 58-42 in Hillsborough and 62-38 in Polk.

Now comprehensive sales tax referendums are on the November ballot in Pinellas and Polk. Pinellas wants to raise sales their tax 14% to expand bus service and build a light rail from Clearwater to St. Pete. Polk wants a 14% sales tax increase to fund roads and expand bus service.  

When the power brokers placed a stadium only sales tax on the Hillsborough ballot in the early 1990's, it was defeated.  But the local powers to be came back and gave us the Community Investment Tax (CIT) as a "something for everyone" tax that passed. That tax was supposed to fund road improvements for 30 years but now it's gone.  Our county commissioners borrowed against the future revenues of the tax by 2007.  The county moved our CIT dollars around faster than we could figure out where those funds were actually going. We're paying the CIT tax until 2026 but it's only to pay back the borrowed funds.  

Is Polk attempting something similar?  Tweaking their 2010 referendum to include roads for messaging purposes to help get their transit tax passed?  It may not be working.  According to this recent Lakeland Ledger article Is The Sales Tax Referendum In Trouble In Polk County?

Judging from comments I’ve heard and seen, the proposed Polk County sales tax referendum planned for the November ballot may be a hard sell. 

What’s proposed is a 1 cent increase in sales tax. The way it was originally proposed, half a cent would go to transit. The other half cent would go to road and bridge project’s. 

Here’s why:
Lack of support for transit is certainly part of it (my emphasis).

The referendum has created so much chaos in Polk county where citizens are distrustful that according to the Ledger article, one county commissioner recently proposed 

Then last week Commissioner George Lindsey proposed shifting money from transit to road building for the first five years of the tax’s life even though a 50-50 split is what referendum supporters have been selling for the past year.

This change to the ballot language will be discussed at the February 4 Polk county commission meeting.  What a mess.

Both Polk and Pinellas are going to wage a publicity campaign to get their respective referendums passed. When Tom Phillips, Director of the Polk transit agency spoke to the Tiger Bay club last October, the Lakeland Ledger reported 

To build support for the transportation referendum, Phillips said he has been speaking to civic and political groups all over Polk County and is working with other supporters on an advertising campaign (my emphasis) designed to sell transit to Polk's voters.

Tom Phillips, Director for transit agency in Polk County 

Yesterday the Tribune reports that Pinellas's PSTA is on another spending binge to use tax dollars to "sell" their flawed product. 

After spending $400,000 promoting the Greenlight Pinellas mass-transit plan last year, Pinellas Suncoast Transit Authority has earmarked another $150,000 for a new educational campaign and may spend more in the run-up to the November referendum.

The information campaign will be in addition to a privately funded advocacy campaign called Greenlight Yes, which will be launched Friday at the Pinellas Realtor’s Association. Realtors and construction firms are expected to pour up to $1 million into the push for the referendum to pass.

PSTA CEO Brad Miller said there will be coordination between the two campaigns (emphasis mine), both of which are expected to be directed by Tampa public relations firm Tucker Hall. He is scheduled to present details of the education campaign to PSTA’s board later this month, which could include increasing the budget for the campaign.

According to the The Tampa Bay Times, Ronnie Duncan, chairman of  taxpayer funded TBARTA, organized Greenlight Yes.

Organized by Ronnie Duncan, chairman of the Tampa Bay Area Regional Transportation Authority, or TBARTA, the campaign is going by the name "Greenlight YES."

Brad Miller publicly admits his taxpayer funded agency will "coordinate" with the pro rail Greenlight Yes campaign and the chairman of Taxpayer funded TBARTA is helping to organize the pro rail campaign.  As a taxpayer, are you outraged? Is this coordination even legal? At the very least, it is unethical. In 2010, we watched the blatant "skirting" of our electioneering laws in Hillsborough. This activity needs to stop. Is that the intent of our state electioneering laws? If it is, then don't we need to reform those state laws?  Our state legislators are up for re-election in 2014. Ask your legislative candidates running in your district if they would support a bill to reform our electioneering laws to reign in this collusion, coordination, corruption and cronyism.

The ballot language in Pinellas does not state PSTA's property tax will be eliminated. Taxpayers are simply asked to "trust" that will happen.  Does that sound a bit like "You can keep your healthcare"?  The existing PSTA property tax may or may not be eliminated. If it is eliminated it could be brought back at any time in the future.  Comforting huh?

In Hillsborough, the transportation issue has at times looked like a "three ring circus" (Webster's Dictionary defines three ring circus: a place with a lot of busy and confusing activity.)  The Transportation Leadership Policy group has been meeting since July of last year. This committee, consisting of the county commissioners and mayors of Tampa, Temple Terrace and Plant City, has meandered all over the map. Why? Because a specific problem statement was never defined. 

The county website for this initiative Transportation for Economic Development provides links to the archived meetings, houses some presentations and provides a 50,000 foot level vision and strategy.  Finally at January's meeting some detailed data was presented that looks to begin to specifically define some problems. What took so long? 

Without a specific problem statement nor goal defined, there appears to be two views of the purpose of this committee. About half the members of this committee seem to believe its goal is to identify key economic spaces, then determine transportation solutions to connect them - a continuation of the previous Economic Prosperity Stakeholder Committee (EPSC) work tying in transportation. The other half of this committee appears to believe its goal is to identify transportation solutions (or transit solutions as some members tout) that they believe will drive economic development. At times, these two sub-groups appear to talk past themselves.

Governance was brought up at January's meeting and out of the blue Kevin Beckner proposes to restructure HART to manage county transportation projects.  The Tribune reported:

Hillsborough County leaders are drawing up plans to remake the HART bus system into an expansive agency that can oversee construction of countywide transportation projects and spur economic development.
Changes being contemplated for the Hillsborough Area Regional Transit Authority include a larger board with expertise in economic development and the authority to build roads and rail and create new bus routes (emphasis mine).

The Tribune takes liberty with including rail as if there's a plan for rail in Hillsborough. There's not!  HART manages our local bus service and their 10 year Transportation Development Plan approved late last year supports expanding bus services.  There is no rail component in it. 

Mayor Buckhorn provided insight for why HART was being nominated to manage transportation improvements - it's the agency that can accept federal rail funds. Also proposed was adding economic development as a responsibility of some restructured, super sized, super spending HART agency consisting only of elected officials. An agency consisting only of elected officials managing a huge bucket of transportation dollars should raise a red flag for potential cronyism and corruption. Economic development should not be the responsibility or our local transit agency. 

Let's be realistic.  HART deals with transit, not transportation. They operate and manage our local bus system.  They do not manage roads, bike paths, sidewalks or economic development. With managed/toll lanes coming in the future, tolls which are user fees paid by vehicle users, must go back into road improvements NOT diverted to transit. 

And the Eye just reported about some power brokers proposing  election rigging a March 2015 rail referendum to avoid county voters and stack the deck with city voters. We're sure the rail cartel would love that.

Tom Phillips, Polk county's transit agency director, wants that new transit revenue as the Ledger reports

Phillips said the proposal comes at a time when a successful transit system in Polk County could fit into a regional transportation system that includes the SunRail commuter rail system coming from the Orlando area and light rail that may be coming from the Tampa Bay area.

SunRail coming to Polk County?  Guess Polk is considering it according to this Ledger article

The prospects of expanded passenger rail service becoming part of Polk County's future transportation network will be the topic of a public forum at 6 p.m. Tuesday at the Lake Eva Complex. 

Polk transportation planners and local officials have discussed investigating the feasibility of extending the Sunrail line — if it is extended to the edge of Poinciana — into Polk County to Haines City, which has not had regular rail service since the 1970s.

How will that be paid for in Polk county? Another tax increase? Light rail coming from Tampa Bay to Polk?  When will that happen?

Adding to this mess is federal dollars to fund new rail systems are dwindling at the same time older, legacy rail systems are in dire need of major rehabilitation. Greenlight Pinellas requires almost a billion dollars of federal grant money.  What happens when they don't get all those dollars?  Local taxpayers are on the hook.

What does this all mean in Tampa Bay?

Transportation chaos!  But it is orchestrated chaos.

Charlie? Who are you kidding?

It's getting that time of the season, when the poitical reporters need to frame up the narrative for the upcoming elections in November.  In the last week, much of the Florida political reporting was focused on a new poll showing Charlie Crist firmly in the lead over Governor Rick Scott.

The central message of Gov. Rick Scott's re-election campaign — that he's the one best suited to keep improving Florida's economy — so far isn't convincing most Floridians, a new poll shows.

Despite the governor and state GOP every day pounding home the message that his policies are revving up the state's economy that tanked under Gov. Charlie Crist, a narrow majority of Florida voters, 47 percent to 42 percent, say likely Democratic nominee Crist would do a better job handling jobs and the economy than Scott.

Overall, 46 percent of those surveyed in the Quinnipiac University poll said they would vote for Crist today, and 38 percent said Scott. Fifty four percent — including nearly 1 in 4 Republicans — said Scott does not deserve a second term, and 38 percent said he deserves re-election.

Former Governor, Charlie Crist, who's picture must be in the dictionary under "flip-flop", is leading this latest poll of registered voters by 8 points.

Charlie Crist hearts Obama

Do these voters recall the results when Crist was governor?  Nearly worse in nation unemployment, budget deficits, housing crash?  So unpopular he chose not to run for re-election?

Do these voters recall that Crist stated in 2010

“The Obama health-care bill was too big, too expensive, and expanded the role of government far too much,” Crist 2010 said, echoing comments he had made on July 29 of that year.... “Obamacare was off the charts, was wrong. It taxed too much, has mandates that are probably unconstitutional, and it’s not the way to go. And it was rammed through.”

Yet in November 2013, despite all the evidence of the Obamacare trainwreck, he said responded about Obamacare on MSNBC's Ed Show (!)

“It’s the right thing to do. Our country needed to do it. I’m glad he did it. I’m glad we have it, and it’ll continue to improve, I believe.”

On taxes, he has also spoke out of both sides of his mouth.  In 2005, he signed the Americans for Tax Reform’s Taxpayer Protection Pledge, yet broke his pledge in 2010.

He was also signed the No Match, No Vote law, yet has recently been campaigning against any voter ID laws.

Formerly pro-life, pro-2nd Amendment, anti-gay marriage, he has now flipped on all these issues.

He was even calling for lifting the federal ban in offshore drilling... before, of course, he flipped.

Crist is an opportunistic politician, in the worse sense of politicians.  It's obvious he's devoid of principles, really does not believe anything.  It's not as if any new evidence or facts have the context of these flips and flops.  Since his political career is obviously at risk, he grabbed at the opportunity to change his stripes, especially given the void of decent Florida Democrat political leadership.  Few politicians have changed on these issues during the last few years, and absolutely no politician has come close to changing their colors like Crist.

He really only cares about his political power.

Don't the voters... and Democrats understand this?

Or do they not care?

Do they have any value in consistency, principles, and honor?

Are there not any other eligible or even semi-qualified Democrats?

No.

Crist exploited a void in the Florida Democratic party.  Democrats are having problems at the local level fielding qualified candidates.

Just one Democrat remains in the running with four Hillsborough County Commission seats up for election now that candidate Mary Mulhern, a Tampa city council member, has withdrawn from the District 7 race for health reasons.

That means Republican Commissioner Al Higginbotham is the favorite to win the one commission seat Democrats had a shot at. Higginbotham faces two Republican opponents, Robin Lester and Don Kruse, whose campaigns are still looking to gain traction.

To some observers, this scenario raises serious questions about the Democratic Party's ability to compete in local elections. Democrats have 61,000 more registered voters in the county than Republicans, yet the GOP has a solid 5-2 majority on the commission.

“It starts with leaders recruiting candidates to run for office,” said Kevin Beckner, one of the two Democrats on the commission. “There's a lack of focus on the recruitment process at the state level. Their focus seems to be on getting people elected to Congress or statewide office.”

And the problem is not just local to Hillsborough County. There certainly is a lack of development of decent candidates across Florida, as evident with Crist, as well as Alex Sink, the Hillsborough carpetbagger now running for Congress CD-13 in Pinellas.

But do the Democrats even know what they are getting with Crist?  How can they assess a candidate, who just a few years ago, as Governor, they despised, as he took positions antithetical to the Democrats?

Crist had his chance and he blew it.  His results were not good. Florida was hit hard by the economic down turn during his term. Crists policies of embracing FHA and federal tax credits for unqualified home buyers, further led to propping up the housing bubble, making it worse when it burst.  This was why Florida lost the 3rd most jobs in the country under Crist.  He took the Obama stimulus money. Rather than use it as intended, Crist used it to paper over severe state budget issues rather than address them head on.  No wonder he ran away from the mess he created.

Crist saw the writing on the wall, and tried his luck with running for Senate, where he metamorphosed from Republican, then as he lost to Rubio, transformed into an independent, then completed the full metamorphosis into a Democrat.

Well, we think he's Democrat.  At least that's what he says.  But who really knows?

If he does get elected, the odds are overwhelming that he will face a Republican legislature.  How will he move any of his new found policies with a Republican legislature?

Does anyone really think the Republicans will cooperate and partner with the apostate Crist?

Or will Crist metamorphose yet again back to Republican polices, since it will the only get anything done in a Crist administration?

Why do we want some obviously professional political chameleon whom we have no idea what he really believes or what he will do?

Florida Governor Rick Scott

Rick Scott's first mission was to clean up the Charlie Crist mess he left behind with some tough budget decisions early in his term. Many political pundits and operatives pounded on him mercilessly for budget cuts.  Easy for them to do.  They were not responsible for recovering Florida from the Crist mess.

Rick Scott is not a professional career politician.  He had never run for office prior to winning the governor's race in 2010.  He's not great at schmoozing, hiding behind political shifting sands, and has had a mis-step or two along the way. But he has stayed his course, focused like a laser on jobs, been consistent on his messaging. and has the results to show for it.  Florida created 196,000 new jobs in 2013, second most jobs in the country.  Is he a bit awkward at times in public?  Yes.  Has he learned a few things along the way? Yes. Is he focused on his role to help all Floridians?  Yes.  Is he getting results? Yes.

Because he's not a smooth talking career politician, he's not trying to be some one he's not.  He is being himself.  And It's Working.

Not like Charlie Crist.

We've had enough of Crists soundbites.  Florida wants results, and that's what we're getting with Scott.

Crist should be worried.  At one point in 2010, in the Florida Senate race, he lead Marco Rubio by over 30 points.

How did that turn out?

Enough of the career politicians.

Enough of Charlie Crist.

It's Time for a Plan?

Thursday evening, January 30, at the Art Museum in downtown Tampa, Connect Tampa Bay unveiled their transportation plan.  The Eye was there, with about 30 or so other interested folks.

Brian Willis kicked the meeting off, and noted its been about a year since Connect Tampa Bay's founding, and they've been working hard across the community.

Brian Seel then discussed their participation in "hundreds of meetings", surveys they've sponsored, and "testifying" in Hillsborough transportation workshops.  Momentum is building, and they need to keep up the momentum, especially since another 600,000 new residents are expected in Hillsborough by 2025.  The Eye's research indicated it's more like 2040, but there is little doubt there will be continued growth in Hillsborough.

Brandi Miklus next talked briefly about the surveys they've done across over 3000 Connect Tampa Bay members, with hundreds of responses, about their transportation priorities.  The survey was a "great exercise" and highlighted how the respondents want change and options.

HART Bus.. Will Hillsbrough be getting other modes of transit?

Kevin Thurman then did the heavy lifting and described the plan.

He started with some positioning of Hillsborough with Greenlight Pinellas plan and Polk County's MyRide plan, both of which have sales tax increase referendums on the November 2014 ballot, yet Hillsborough does not.  Their goal is to get Hillsborough to catch up with the neighboring counties, and get going on a plan.  Hence the name of the plan "Go Hillsborough", which is focused solely on Hillsborough County.

Kevin stated there is "no silver bullet" to solve our transportation needs, needs vary across the county. We have decades of plans, with similar ideas and themes, and there is no need to have yet another study to create yet another plan.  So he's harvested concepts and ideas from many of those existing plans, plus added a 1 cent sales tax hike to pay for the plan. This should bring in about $204M per year at today's dollars, indexed for inflation at 2% per year, to help pay for the Go Hillsborough plan.

The plan is based on four principles:

1. Economic opportunity - access to jobs, customers to business
2. Freedom and choice - choose from multiple option, help attract talent
3. Fiscal responsibility- maintain what we have (which we've not done well), leverage grants and private investment
4. Public engagement - communicate the plan, seek public input

After leading with a "do nothing" and "go slow" options, Kevin elaborated the plan.

It's essentially funding all modes of transportation:

• Roads
• Walk/bike
• Bus and Bus Rapid Transit, with bus toll lanes
• Light rail
• Ferry

Public Transit Commission reform is also a key initiative in the plan.

Here's some of the funding details as I noted (numbers may be off a little, as it was hard to read from the slides, which I've not yet received a copy):

Mode	per year ($M)	% sales tax
Roads	$164	33%
Walk/bike	$19	8%
Bus	$77	23%
Rail	$71	33%
Ferry	$4	2%

Roads includes improved maintenance, growth, signal optimization, and would be funded from the sales tax increase, mobility fees and gas taxes.

Bus includes funding for HART's  Transit Development Plan (TDP), deploying more Metro-Rapid style routes than HART has currently planned, a "gold standard Bus Rapid Transit", and bus toll lanes. Tolled intersection bypass was also mentioned as a possibility.  Tolls would be used to fund connecting transit and transit operations.

Walk/bike is important leg of Connect Tampa Bay's plan, as they are seeking to address the safety of cyclists and pedestrians, and elevate Hillsborough to the best in the South bike and pedestrian friendly community.

Rail was based on a 27 mile or so route, smaller in scope than most other recent plans.  Their suggested route was USF to downtown Tampa to Westshore, airport, and up to Carrollwood.  Kevin stated they estimated 30,000 riders (per day?) at 20% less than HART's costs.

Ferry is based on concepts from http://www.tampabayhighspeedferry.com/, and would provide Ferry service from south Hillsborough to MacDill, downtown Tampa, and St. Petersburg.

Also mentioned was PTC reform, as that will factor in as new technologies and modes of transportation, particularly as autonomous vehicles come to market and affect the transportation for hire sector.

The overall timeline Kevin shared was:

• 2014 - Public input, finalize the plan
• 2015 - 2016 - Get a referendum on the ballot
• 2018 - first new option deployed and running

The "call to action" from Brian Seel was to keep the discussing going, get more input, and keep the momentum going.

The Eye's take?

The plan has something for everyone.  That may play well for messaging at the ballot box but it's early and there's still many questions remain about the fiscal realities and viability.

It's also an end run around the Hillsborough County Transportation Policy Leadership Group that's lost their way with navel gazing and discussing converting HART into some economic planning authority or something that will never happen... rather than working on realistic plans.  We're tired of waiting too. The Go Hillsborough plan from Connect Tampa Bay is more concrete than anything we've yet seen from this committee of our community leaders who have been meeting for over 7 months.

It was interesting too that they did not make the case for subsidized development around transit oriented development (TOD), tax increment financing, and other questionable subsidies for economic development and financial engineering, and kept their plan focused on transportation. The only time TOD was mentioned was with the gold standard BRT, which is the taj mahal BRT version with dedicated lanes and may cost almost as much as fixed rail.

Of course, the devil is in the details.

The rail component is likely underestimated.  At $75M per year, they could optimistically build about 1 mile of track per year, since most light rail projects come in around $70M - $120M per mile. Rail has a tendency to suck up more and more dollars over time, so we're wary of these numbers.

It's also unclear how much duplication on the routes between modes of bus MetroRapid, BRT, and Light Rail, but that could be worked out.

They did not discuss much in the terms of transit ridership estimates or fare box revenue or fare coverage.  I'd like to see those estimates, especially how much fare coverage we can expect, and hope to drive fare coverage higher over time.

They also seem to gloss over the federal, state and private dollars that would be required for this to work.  As some municipalities are finding out, this is getting harder to get such as Orlando SunRail and Charlotte Lynx are experiencing, and can no longer be depended on.  The federal grant dollars are shrinking at the same time the older, legacy rail systems need major rehabilitation. 

The overall financial story will be different.  It will be more than just a 1 cent sales tax increase.  This type of plan will most likely be bonded out to get the cash up front to get this going sooner rather later. However, that's not without risk.  Hillsborough County was burned by bonding out the CIT tax, then the economy turned down, the CIT sales tax decreased dramatically (just now recovering to 2007 levels), and the road projects were died, hence one reasons we've seen no relief in Hillsborough.  Some realistic financial assumptions are needed and while Connect Tampa Bay's assumption of 2% increase is pretty conservative these days, we should assume there will be a recession or two along the way and adjust accordingly.

Hillsborough is expected to continue to grow.  However, we have needs now that need to be addressed.  We also have funding issues for transportation at the federal and local levels.  So we don't harbor an expectation that things will magically improve for free.  We have to be financially realistic in a still uncertain economy, understand the true likely ridership, understand the true value to the community, and the real risks that will emerge.

To go forward with a plan of "something for everyone" and go fast simply may not be realistic or fiscally prudent. 

Election rigging?

[Updated - fixed link]

Having lost the great rail tax referendum in 2010, now "some government leaders" in Hillsborough are trying again.

Three years after Hillsborough County voters soundly rejected a one-penny sales tax increase to fund transportation projects, some government leaders are talking about holding a similar referendum next spring.

Though details are still sketchy, proponents say the referendum could be held in March to coincide with the Tampa mayoral election. They don’t want to hold the referendum this November because a similar transportation tax is on the ballot in Pinellas County that month and officials here want to see how that vote goes.

I guess we can't handle too much information? Last I checked Hillsborough County residents can't vote in Pinellas.

Who are "some government leaders"?

“We’re going to have some finality to all these conversations this year,” said Commissioner Mark Sharpe, who supported the 2010 referendum. “What would likely then occur is we will be talking about funding options and then you will likely see (a referendum) in 2015.” 

Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn said he supports holding the referendum in March. By that time the county and city transportation planners will have identified the projects, including a potential rail route, giving the policy group time to vote on the list as well as a funding source, he said.

“We know where the potholes are, we know where the roads need to be expanded, so that part is there,” Buckhorn said. “It’s a matter of accumulating all that data, figuring out the rail side of it, and what the technology is.”

The usual rail cheerleaders, Mark Sharpe, and Bob Buckhorn, leading us into the next rail disaster.

Light rail crash of the day.. coming to Hillsborough?

Mayor Buckhorn, how much is that Trolley costing Tampa?  Can you first make that trolley financially sustainable before you lead the county into a financial rabbit hole?

So they'll take four months after the Pinellas election and figure our transportation plans -- roads, buses, rail, bikes, pedestrian -- for the March 2015 ballot.... that will ostensibly plan for the next 25 - 50 years?  Buckhorn as already assumed we need to "figure out the rail side of it".  Has he not learned from the failures the last time around that if they really want to "figure out the rail side of it" it is to save the citizens money and not do it?

Other commissioners said a March referendum would not give the policy group time to digest the large package of transportation projects still being developed and then sell the improvements - and a tax increase - to county residents.

“We just want to make sure we have all the information back: the citizen feedback, the funding sources, the economic development areas,” Republican Sandy Murman said. “I just think there’s a whole lot that needs to be coordinated and put together before we even talk about a referendum.”

Not that the Eye believes in this type of planning.... but our planners do.

What's missing in the article?

The names of the people behind this effort.  Who are they? Are they our local politicians? We have some "sketchy" comments from the Mayor and some county commissioners, but who's really proposing this?

Commissioner Les Miller, a Democrat, recalled that the 2010 referendum passed inside the Tampa city limits but was overwhelmingly defeated in the more populous unincorporated areas of the county. Miller said he thinks the reason the referendum lacked support in the suburbs was because those residents did not feel they would benefit from the proposed transportation projects, including a costly light-rail system from downtown Tampa to the University of South Florida. [emphasis mine]

“We did not filter out all the details and all the facts about how the people of unincorporated Hillsborough County would benefit from the tax,” said Miller. “That was a major factor in the defeat.”

The facts are that the 2010 referendum passed in city of Tampa, but was overwhelmingly defeated by Hillsborough County voters.  There was no costly rail "planned" other than a USF to downtown to airport route.  Since the defeat, HART, under new pragmatic leadership, deployed the new MetroRapid route in less than a year, for 1/60 (!) of the cost of the planned costly USF - downtown light rail route.  Other plans such as the Hillsborough MPO 2035 Long Range Transportation Plan did not show rail deployed to Brandon, perhaps the worse transportation issues in the county, until 2035!

Light rail is the most highly subsidized mode of transportation.

Transportation costs and subsidies

Filter out those details and facts, Commissioner!

Now they want to stage yet another referendum coincident with the Tampa Mayor's election, which of course will bring out Tampa voters, but there will be very little if anything else of interest for Hillsborough County voters.

Which Hillsborough County Commissioners are going to support a Hillsborough County referendum for a city of Tampa election?

If they can't win by being informative, transparent and making their case to ALL the voters, then schedule the election so they minimize the exposure and squeeze it in by rigging elections.

It's also convenient this article is published on the same day that Connect Tampa Bay, a local transportation activist group, is re-emerging with their 2014 kickoff meeting tonight.

We've always known these rail proponents would try again. It's a common pattern, as most votes on the rail led comprehensive transportation referendums in most municipalities are voted down the first attempt.  The proponents spin it up again and again, until they wear us down.

Here we go again.