The Big Squeeze in the Big Guava?

The Tribune reported Squeezing them in: Florida's growing population will come at a price.

Twenty million and counting.

Florida leaped over another population milestone this year, according to U.S. census figures, and is now the nation’s second-fastest growing state behind Texas.

Most of those new Floridians — some 1,000 per day — are arriving not in the delivery room but by one-way trips in ports and airports and along interstates 75 and 95 with trailers in tow.

That influx is not expected to slow down anytime soon with the state’s population predicted to rise to 26 million by 2030, according to the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida.

They're coming from somewhere. Hopefully not Syria.

Actually, they are coming to the sun belt, including Florida from the midwest and northeast according to census populations trends. Chicago, Boston, NYC, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, etc. are not growing, and are losing residents. Where are they going? Dallas - Ft. Worth, Houston, Austin, Nashville, Raleigh, Charlotte, Atlanta, Phoenix, to name a few growing sunbelt cities. And of course, just about anywhere in Florida.

Why are they moving here to Florida?

Because it's better here, whether they're from Chicago or Syria.

No matter what you're looking for, we are tending upwards. Quality of life, growing jobs opportunity, affordability, weather, business climate, lower taxes, less onerous government intrusions. All these sunbelt cities are turning for the better and are growing compared to most any northern or midwest counterpart, and we're riding that wave.

It's also interesting to note that the sunbelt destination cities all are relatively younger cities, sprawling metro areas, post transit, small central business districts, multiple employment centers, with predominant suburban lifestyles. All brought to you by the modern marvel the automobile.

Where are they going in Florida? A lot will end up right here in the Tampa Bay area. According to UF's BEBR June 2015 Population Projections report, by 2040, local growth forecasts

	2014 Population	2040 Projection	Growth Projection
Hillsborough	1,301,887	1,883,123	581236
Pasco	479,340	733,885	254,545
Pinellas	933,258	978,541	45,283
Polk	623,174	901,077	277,903
Total			1,158,967

As a comparison, Central Florida (Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and Volusia Counties) is forecasted similarly to add another 1,116,590 residents combined. The stories about the I-4 corridor being the growth belt of Florida still hold true as over 2 million are expected here by 2040. The only place close is South Florida (Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties) where another 1.4 million are expected by 2040.

Will Tampa be like Hong Kong in 2040?

Keep in mind much of this growth is a continuation of Florida, and the Tampa Bay areas, growth over the last 25 years. Florida's population in 1990 was 13.03 million. It is now over 20 million. As scary as some people are making all this growth sound, the next 25 years are forecasted to be much in line with what we've been through. We don't need a wall or keep out signs at the border, or tell Zephyrhills water to stop bottling, or stop lawn watering to list a few of the doom and gloomers commenting in the Trib.

Of course, growth presents a continuing challenge on our infrastructure, governance, culture, environment -- many of the things that attracts people to Florida in the first place.

The Tribune highlights water and transportation as challenge areas to be addressed.

“Florida’s increasing population will continue to stress our critical water resources,” [Agriculture Commissioner Adam] Putnam spokesman Aaron Keller said in an email. “We must invest more in water supply planning and alternative supply development to meet the needs of this growing population and continue to support a thriving economy while balancing the needs of our natural environment.”

The situation is less acute in Tampa Bay, where existing sources, mainly reservoirs, lakes and other surface water, will provide enough potable water until about 2040,..

The most critical water shortage may be in the Orlando area.

....

Under the urging of Gov. Rick Scott, the Florida Department of Transportation has focused on toll and paid express lane projects. Locally, that includes the $454 million Gateway Express, which will link Interstate 275 to U.S. 19. The state is also moving ahead with the $3 billion Tampa Bay Express, which will widen I-275 through downtown Tampa and redesign its interchange with Interstate 4, commonly known as “malfunction junction.”

The state is now funding road and other transportation at record levels, and even more money will be needed to keep up with demand, Polzin warns. That could be especially true in the Tampa Bay area, where the region’s unusual geography — a huge metropolitan area linked by just three bridges — will make it difficult to solve traffic woes.

The region has the second-lowest number of freeway miles of any major metropolitan area in the nation, he said. Attempts in the past to build ring roads to alleviate the burden on I-275 failed to materialize because of environmental concerns.

More people also will mean more cars on the road during events such as hurricane evacuations.

“Virtually everything in the region needs to go on I-4 and I-275; there aren’t good alternatives that would help relieve pressure on that critical link,” Polzin said. “It foretells some pretty serious congestion and traffic problems.”

Don't forget those hurricanes. Few people look towards transit for evacuations.

The vast majority of the new arrivals will be arriving by car, will continue to use their car in their daily. This growth is the driving reason why we must fix our roads now!

Many of the new arrivals will be baby boomers, seeking to retiree in the sunshine the rest of us have enjoyed for many years. But keep in mind where many are coming from, and why they are coming here. They are not coming here to replicate the experiences they had in the past. They want our lifestyle - sun, fun, affordable living and freedom and ease of getting around town and the state.

But all thats at risk if we don't get it right.

The challenge for Florida will be to accommodate that increased demand without land and property prices spiraling out of the reach of working- and middle-class families, said Jack McCabe, chief executive of McCabe Research & Consulting of Deerfield Beach and an independent housing analyst.

In the past, Florida was a natural destination for retirees with many becoming snowbirds, living in mobile homes in the mild Florida winters before returning north for the summer.

Many of the residential towers recently completed or under construction are luxury-priced and aimed at affluent retirees or millennials. Prices of condos and downtown apartments are already out of reach for many residents in places like South Florida and downtown Tampa, he said.

“That was always one of Florida’s biggest selling points in the past — that it was affordable,” he said. “That isn’t the case anymore.”

We are beginning to see the consequences of some of the decisions

Hipster urbanists, urban planners and environmental do-gooders that end up limiting the new arrivals residential choice to urban oriented condos, apartments, infill development and urban growth areas will only constrain residential supply and choice and make residences more expensive for everyone else.

If fact, it will homogenize the urban areas further, reducing our delightful diversity to the people who can afford it. Afford to be with others of the same class, and same thinking, forcing the underclass out, perhaps into the suburbs the hiptster urbanists abhors. See San Francisco. But they'll think they saved the environment and the black bear, ignoring the real costs they hoisted upon others.

But if you're rich, you'll be set. But it's these same type of urban containment policies making day to day life unaffordable that many of the new residents will be fleeing from.

Yet these are often the same crowd that wants to restrict suburban growth and therefore limit the "live, work and play" choices for new arrivals.

In reality, Tampa proper has only grown about 70,000 the last 20 years. It will not be able to handle the 580,000 new residents in Hillsborough County without nearly tripling density. Think about every single family home in Tampa becoming a triplex, or building 1,160 500 unit apartment towers in the next 25 years, or about 46 per year. This is a bit of reductio ad absurdum arguments,  but some urbanist are thinking along these lines. Perhaps we can get by with 800 high rises. If you like Hong Kong.

Also consider the over 500,000 that will be arriving in Pasco and Polk counties by 2040, many of whom will work and play in Hillsborough further straining infrastructure needs.

The growth will largely occur in the suburban, and what is now rural areas. There are now developments encroaching upon Wimauma, of all places. Soon to go beyond. Sure, we'll have urban infill, increased densification in some areas for those that want that lifestyle. But there is no room for the amount of people coming this way in Tampa. They will be "out there", and will need more roads to get around. Even if the new arrivals ride transit at triple the current rate to 6%, 500,000 new residents will still be on the roads in Hillsborough every day, going where they want and need to go. FDOT understands this, and that's why the Tampa Bay Express project must proceed.

At the end of the day, we'll have challenges with our infrastructure driven by growth, and will have to make some tough decisions on our water, transportation, development strategies and costs, and environment. But we should always gauge our plans decisions on what's best for the people, and not some theoretical growth management and containment plan.

The new arrivals are voting to be here with their money and time because they like it more here than where they came from. Let's keep it that way. For all of us.

To plan or not to plan

One of the heaviest traveled roads in the Tampa Bay Area is State Road 60 through Brandon. The Brandon area has grown tremendously in the last 30 years, often with little forethought, which has resulted in more congestion.

So what to do?

People in the Brandon - Valrico area literally and figuratively are not going anywhere. Another 600,000 people will be moving to Hillsborough County in the next 25 - 30 years, and it's likely that a big chunk of them will move out to Eastern Hillsborough County, further impeding traffic.

Can we get ahead of the rush?

From the Tribune on April 13,

VALRICO — The time will come when State Road 60’s rural swath won’t be so rural, state road officials say.

Traffic on the ribbon of pavement between Valrico Road and the Polk County line will increase 54 percent — some 71,000 vehicle trips per day — by 2040, Florida’s Department of Transportation estimates. Unless that 12.3-mile segment is widened to six lanes, it will not measure up to its designation as a major east-west corridor and evacuation route, transportation officials say.

“It’s not going to be built anytime soon, but at least we can look at the impacts,” said Kirk Bogen, environmental management engineer for the DOT. Bogen estimates it will be five to 15 years before any construction gets under way.

No one is plowing up SR 60 anytime soon.  Sounds like someone is thinking about a plan.  With the growth forecasts in Hillsborough, there will be more new neighborhoods taking over the rural areas along State Road 60.

Planned widening on SR-60

Of course, the Trib found many folks against the plan, yet no viable alternative plan that would address the future needs, except the gratuitous mention of light rail, which is in no one's plans to go that far out along SR 60 in the next 50 years.

The Tribune editorial board weighted in on April 21.

The Florida Department of Transportation’s plans to six-lane a rural stretch of State Road 60 illustrates how the state can undermine local growth plans.

Nothing may happen anytime soon, but as the Tribune’s Yvette C. Hammett reports, the DOT already is making preparations to widen the 12.3-mile length of road between Valrico Road and the Polk County line.

Traffic flow now is adequate on much of that strip, but DOT engineer Kirk Bogen says the agency is trying to plan ahead instead of “getting behind the 8 ball and waiting for congestion.”

Those are reasonable concerns. But there are far more pressing needs than developing a rural highway, where expansion would likely encourage development and sprawl.

The Trib goes on that the Hillsborough MPO, one of twelve(!) government agencies that have some say on local transportation projects, should be consulted.

Hillsborough County Commissioner and MPO Chairman Mark Sharpe wrote to the DOT pointing out there is no demand for the project, it would be built in an area the county envisioned as remaining rural, and there are more pressing transportation needs.

That stretch of State Road 60 is outside the county’s urban service area — the area where local roads and other infrastructure are planned for future development. Such boundaries are intended to discourage sprawling subdivisions that generate high costs for taxpayers.

Perhaps so. The MPO are planners, but their priorities are to control growth into predetermined areas, while the FDOT's priorities are to plan ahead and avoid traffic congestion and enhance evacuation routes... such as SR 60. We will have growth, and this is a plan that at least attempts to get ahead of that growth.  600,000 people are not all moving into downtown Tampa, where only about 7,000 currently live, and over 83% of the local population lives greater than 10 miles from downtown.

Then the Trib states:

It is bad public policy to use state highway construction as a growth driver. We don’t believe that is the DOT’s motive here, but it is likely to be the result.

But how is using highway construction for a growth driver any different than using light rail and transit oriented development as a growth driver, a position the Tribune has repeatedly proposed?

They are BOTH bad policies.  Let's have transportation policies that address our mobility needs.  Lets have economic and development policies that address those issues.  Yes, they are some dependencies, but they are different issues, and can be addressed with much different solutions.

We see this pattern over and over again the Tampa Bay area.  There's a plan to fix or enhance a heavily traveled road, trying to get ahead of the growth, only to be thwarted by NIMBYs, special interests, community plans, and the Urban Land Institute.

Adding a toll road to complement heavily traveled, State Road 54, in south Pasco, has met with stiff local and political opposition. Yet they have no viable solution to address the expectations of another 20,000 homes along the route.

At least the Tribune has taken a more muted approach on SR 54, but not endorsing the toll road idea.

Although we’re not sold on the proposal, that doesn’t mean it shouldn’t be explored. Clearly, something has to be done.

Of course, everyone cites Pascos Urban Land Institute $125,000 study (why do they always use ULI around here?), which always come up with the same answer around "walkable communities" whether its in the exurbs of Pasco or downtown St. Petersburg?  Next time, save taxpayer money, and regardless of the plan, community, transportation needs, just change the title of ULI's standard template and insert "walkable communities" into some report and be done.

Let's not forget Hillsborough County's great contribution to anti-planning, the Community Plans.  Once these community plans are approved, they are adopted into the Hillsborough County Land Development Code, where they can place all sorts of restrictions on road and land use.

Gunn Highway will be identified as a County roadway, which cannot be widened further due to social, economic, policy and environmental constraints.

Hillsborough County... as envisioned by Community Plans

Here we have a major commuting artery between Pasco and northwest Hillsborough constrained as a 2 lane road by a community plan.  Development continues in Pasco County, traffic increases on Gunn Highway, which is becoming more and more dangerous.  But we can't do anything about it since the Keystone - Odessa community plan prohibits addressing Gunn Highway.

So here we are. We can't plan and get ahead of the growth.  We have to wait until we really need improvements.  That's the way we've always done it, right?  But, then its too late, then everyone complains. The NIMBY's and Community Plan proponents complain when planners actually plan for growth, yet they won't much like the alternative of further congestion if nothing is done.  They will only have themselves to blame when congestion worsens with the expected growth in Hillsborough County.

Misleading Facts in its Entirety

Today the Tribune published a Letter to the Editor titled Misleading Facts submitted by the Eye's founder, Mark Calvert.  We appreciate the Tribune publishing Mark's letter but they shortened it a bit.  Therefore, we are publishing the letter to the editor in it's entirety as submitted and highlighting what was removed by the Tribune.

Regarding the February 2nd, 2014 Editorial “Much riding on Pinellas transit plan”, the Tribune did not validate Greenlight Pinellas statements against the facts. 

The Trib stated "Another 200,000 people are expected to move into the county over the next 25 years, a 20 percent increase". 

This is cherry picking the data. According to the University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research, (http://www.bebr.ufl.edu/bebr-products/series/Florida%20County%20Population%20Projections), which is the original source of this estimate, the 200,000 population increase by 2040 in Pinellas is the "high" growth scenario. The medium scenario has Pinellas stagnant, and the low growth scenario, a similar likelihood as the high growth, Pinellas actually LOSES nearly 200,000 in the same time frame. 

Greenlight Pinellas should be using the "medium" scenario for population forecasts, which is the scenario the researchers state "believe will generally provide the most accurate forecasts of future population change." 

I should note the Tribune routinely uses 600,000 or less when reporting the forecasted growth for Hillsborough by 2040, which is the "medium" scenario in the cited study. 

Greenlight Pinellas is intentionally misleading in their “education” efforts, as the “most accurate” population forecast offers less compelling justification for their case. 

The Tribune is not performing a public service by mindlessly printing Greenlight Pinellas misleading talking points.

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Here are the University of Florida population estimates for Pinellas from their Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research link above:

	2012	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035	2040
PINELLAS	920,381
Low		865,700	839,400	812,800	786,000	759,000	731,800	Loss of 188,581
Medium		921,000	922,400	923,600	924,700	925,600	926,400	Increase of 6,019
High		976,300	1,005,400	1,034,500	1,063,400	1,092,200	1,120,900	Increase of 171,189

As the study states, the medium forecast is probably the most accurate.  Is a stagnant population growth over the next 25 years in Pinellas a warning sign about building a high cost light rail system?